GasBuddy forecasts most expensive summer at the pump in years amid strait closure

May 20

12:57 2026

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GasBuddy released its 2026 Summer Travel Survey results and forecast today, revealing that American road trip culture is showing indicators of the impact of gas prices that are surging to levels not seen in years. GasBuddy, a gas price tracking app, forecasts the national average will reach $4.48 per gallon on Memorial Day, up sharply from $3.14 per gallon a year ago, and could average $4.80 per gallon over the summer from Memorial Day through Labor Day, with the possibility of all-time record highs if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a significant portion of the summer.

The summer average forecast of $4.80 per gallon reflects current market conditions and is subject to significant change based on geopolitical developments. That figure will be updated by GasBuddy as the situation evolves. GasBuddy’s 2026 Summer Travel Survey was conducted from May 15–18, 2026, among a random group of GasBuddy users.

According to the survey, despite the price surge, 56% of Americans still plan to drive more than two hours this summer, though that’s down from 69% last year — a meaningful shift reflecting the financial strain on travelers. Of those still hitting the road, 38% expect to drive more than five hours to their destinations, and the majority plan multiple trips. Cost is now the dominant travel consideration, cited by 53% of respondents as a top priority, with 67% saying gas prices are directly impacting their driving plans and 36% saying rising costs are causing them to take fewer road trips altogether.

Travelers are adapting and leaning heavily on savings tools. 83% plan to use GasBuddy to find the lowest prices, and most are willing to drive 2-3 miles out of their way to save at the pump. For those choosing where to fill up, cents off per gallon is the overwhelming loyalty driver, cited by 90% of respondents.

“This is the most volatile summer at the pump in years, and the Strait of Hormuz closure is at the center of it,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Americans are going to pay billions more to get where they’re going this summer, and even after the Strait reopens, it could take a year or more for gas prices to fully recover. Some states are already suspending gas taxes to ease the pain, and federal discussions are underway. Every bit of relief matters. Use every tool you have, including GasBuddy, to find the lowest price near you.”

The national average price of gasoline is projected to be $1.48 more expensive on this Memorial Day compared to last year, driven primarily by the Strait of Hormuz closure and its disruption to global oil supply. Refinery dynamics, the approaching Atlantic hurricane season, OPEC production, and declining global inventories add further upward pressure. If the Strait remains closed for much of the summer, prices could reach beyond $5 per gallon and potentially set new all-time records. Even after the Strait fully reopens, sub-$3 gas is unlikely to return for many months — possibly more than a year.

De Haan’s weekly report showed that, as of Monday, May 18, average gasoline prices in Texas had fallen 8.9 cents per gallon in the last week, averaging $3.92/g, according to GasBuddy’s survey of 13,114 stations in Texas. Prices in Texas were 28.3 cents per gallon higher than a month ago and stand $1.15/g higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel had decreased 0.5 cents compared to a week ago and stood at $5.618 per gallon on Monday.

According to GasBuddy price reports, the cheapest station in Texas was priced at $3.29/g on Sunday, May 17, while the most expensive was $5.09/g, a difference of $1.80/g.

The national average price of gasoline had fallen 1 cent per gallon in the last week, averaging $4.47/g on Monday. The national average was up 45.2 cents per gallon from a month ago and stands $1.33/g higher than a year ago, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million weekly price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country.

“The national average price of gasoline spent much of last week drifting lower after jumping early in the week as oil prices softened on hopes that diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran could help ease supply concerns,” said De Haan said in Monday’s report. “However, that optimism faded after President Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping failed to produce a breakthrough on Iran, while renewed warnings toward Tehran have helped push oil prices higher again. With global oil inventories continuing to trend toward historically tight levels, markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments and potential supply disruptions. As a result, gasoline and diesel prices are likely to remain volatile, and with Memorial Day approaching, any sustained increase in oil prices could begin pushing retail fuel prices higher again in the weeks ahead.”

Historical gasoline prices in Texas and the national average going back five years: